John de Boer published a commentary on urbanization and fragile cities in Knowledge Platform Security & Rule of Law, an excerpt of which is included below.
Fragile cities are a growing global risk. Over the past 40 years, urban populations living in the lower income bracket in fragile countries has increased by an astonishing 326 per cent. According to the UN in the coming 15 years, some of the most fragile and conflict affected countries including Iraq, Syria, Somalia, Guinea-Bissau, Haiti, the DRC, Liberia, Myanmar, and the Central African Republic will have urban populations making up 50 to 75 percent of the overall population. As people accumulate in the cities of fragile and conflict affected states at a rapid pace, it is plausible that the capacity of the local governments to deliver services, govern and provide security will be pushed to the breaking point.
